Deal Lab · Buyout model 1.0
PT Pelabuhan Indonesia (Persero) Buyout Model
A buyout of PT Pelabuhan Indonesia (Persero) on its published figures for fiscal 2025, in rupiah: revenue flat, the margin and the shares of revenue of that period, entry and exit at 10.0x EBITDA, exit after 5 years.
Returns
Internal rate of return
0.2%
Multiple of money
1.01x
Sponsor's equity
Rp58.99tn
Enterprise value
Rp112.72tn
Proceeds at exit
Rp59.70tn
Sources and Uses
| Uses | Amount |
|---|---|
| Equity price | Rp79.09tn |
| Borrowings refinanced | Rp46.93tn |
| Transaction costs | Rp2.25tn |
| Financing fees | Rp1.11tn |
| Minimum cash | Rp735bn |
| Uses | Rp130.11tn |
| Sources | Amount |
|---|---|
| Senior loan | Rp41.66tn |
| Subordinated notes | Rp13.89tn |
| Cash of the company | Rp15.57tn |
| Sponsor's equity | Rp58.99tn |
| Sources | Rp130.11tn |
Projection
| Closing | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | Rp36.73tn | Rp36.73tn | Rp36.73tn | Rp36.73tn | Rp36.73tn | Rp36.73tn |
| EBITDA of the case | Rp11.27tn | Rp11.27tn | Rp11.27tn | Rp11.27tn | Rp11.27tn | Rp11.27tn |
| Cash cost of leases | Rp635bn | Rp635bn | Rp635bn | Rp635bn | Rp635bn | Rp635bn |
| Depreciation and amortisation | Rp3.81tn | Rp3.81tn | Rp3.81tn | Rp3.81tn | Rp3.81tn | |
| Capital expenditure | Rp4.02tn | Rp4.02tn | Rp4.02tn | Rp4.02tn | Rp4.02tn | |
| Increase in working capital | Rp0 | Rp0 | Rp0 | Rp0 | Rp0 | |
| Interest | Rp5.49tn | Rp5.42tn | Rp5.35tn | Rp5.28tn | Rp5.20tn | |
| Tax | Rp423bn | Rp437bn | Rp453bn | Rp469bn | Rp487bn | |
| Cash available for debt service | Rp6.19tn | Rp6.18tn | Rp6.16tn | Rp6.14tn | Rp6.13tn |
Debt Schedule
| Closing | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Senior loan | Rp41.66tn | Rp40.96tn | Rp40.20tn | Rp39.39tn | Rp38.52tn | Rp37.59tn |
| Subordinated notes | Rp13.89tn | Rp13.89tn | Rp13.89tn | Rp13.89tn | Rp13.89tn | Rp13.89tn |
| Revolving facility | Rp0 | Rp0 | Rp0 | Rp0 | Rp0 | Rp0 |
| Cash | Rp735bn | Rp735bn | Rp735bn | Rp735bn | Rp735bn | Rp735bn |
| Debt to EBITDA | 5.00x | 4.94x | 4.87x | 4.80x | 4.72x | 4.64x |
| EBITDA to interest | 2.05x | 2.08x | 2.11x | 2.14x | 2.17x |
Covenants and the Credit View
| Closing | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Limit of debt to EBITDA | 6.50x | |||||
| Lease-adjusted debt to EBITDA | 5.00x | 4.94x | 4.87x | 4.80x | 4.72x | 4.64x |
| Band of debt to EBITDA | Highly leveraged | Aggressive | Aggressive | Aggressive | Aggressive | Aggressive |
Return Bridge
| Amount | |
|---|---|
| Sponsor's equity | Rp58.99tn |
| EBITDA growth | Rp0 |
| Change of multiple | Rp0 |
| Net debt repaid | +Rp4.07tn |
| Non-controlling interests | Rp0 |
| Costs at closing | −Rp3.37tn |
| Management and limited liability | Rp0 |
| Proceeds at exit | Rp59.70tn |
Sensitivity Tables
| Entry by exit | 8.00x | 9.00x | 10.0x | 11.0x | 12.0x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.00x | 1.1% | 6.2% | 10.5% | 14.2% | 17.5% |
| 9.00x | −4.8% | 0.4% | 4.7% | 8.4% | 11.6% |
| 10.0x | −8.8% | −3.9% | 0.2% | 3.8% | 6.9% |
| 11.0x | −12.0% | −7.2% | −3.3% | 0.1% | 3.1% |
| 12.0x | −14.6% | −10.0% | −6.1% | −2.8% | 0.1% |
| Debt by growth | −4.0% | −2.0% | 0.0% | 2.0% | 4.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.00x | −5.6% | −1.8% | 1.6% | 4.9% | 8.1% |
| 4.50x | −7.2% | −2.9% | 1.0% | 4.6% | 8.1% |
| 5.00x | −9.2% | −4.2% | 0.2% | 4.3% | 8.1% |
| 5.50x | −12.0% | −5.9% | −0.7% | 3.9% | 8.1% |
| 6.00x | −16.2% | −8.2% | −2.0% | 3.3% | 8.1% |
Solvers
Highest entry multiple for a return of 20.0%
n/a
No entry multiple reaches the target
Revenue growth a year for a return of 20.0%
11.2%
The target return
Debt capacity at closing, times EBITDA
5.13x
The interest cover or the limit of debt to EBITDA
Assumptions and Their Origins
| Group | Assumption | Value | Origin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Transaction | Entry multiple | 10.0x | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Transaction | Years to exit | 5 years | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Transaction | Transaction costs | 2.0% | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Transaction | Financing fees | 2.0% | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Transaction | Minimum cash, of revenue | 2.0% | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Financing | Debt at closing, times EBITDA | 5.00x | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Financing | Debt at most, of the enterprise value | 60.0% | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Financing | Senior loan, of the new debt | 75.0% | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Financing | Senior loan repaid each year | 1.0% | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Financing | Cash sweep | 100% | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Financing | Revolving facility, times EBITDA | 1.00x | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Financing | Base rate | 5.8% | Policy rate of Indonesia, BIS central bank policy rates, 19 October 2026 |
| Financing | Senior loan spread | 3.5% | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Financing | Subordinated notes spread | 6.0% | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Financing | Revolving facility spread | 3.0% | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Financing | Covenant headroom on debt to EBITDA | 30.0% | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Financing | Minimum EBITDA to interest | 2.00x | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Operations | Revenue growth a year | 0.0% | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Operations | EBITDA margin | 30.7% | EBITDA over revenue, fiscal 2025 |
| Operations | Cash cost of leases, of revenue | 1.7% | Cash cost of leases over revenue, fiscal 2025 |
| Operations | Depreciation and amortisation, of revenue | 10.4% | Depreciation and amortisation over revenue, fiscal 2025 |
| Operations | Capital expenditure, of revenue | 11.0% | Median capital expenditure over revenue, fiscal 2024 to 2025 |
| Operations | Working capital, of revenue | 3.6% | Working capital over revenue, end of the fiscal 2025 |
| Operations | Leases as debt | Yes | Leases as debt, the basis of the credit metrics |
| Operations | Share-based pay added back | No | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Taxes | Tax rate | 22.0% | Combined statutory rate of corporate income tax of Indonesia, OECD Corporate Tax Statistics, 2026 |
| Taxes | Interest deducted up to 30% of EBITDA | No | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Exit | Exit multiple | 10.0x | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Exit | Management share of the proceeds | 0.0% | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Exit | Target return | 20.0% | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
Inputs and Their Documents
Published figures of fiscal 2025, each with the documents it comes from.
| Input | Value | Method | Documents |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EBITDA | Rp11.27tn | Adjusted EBITDA of the company page | Annual report 2025-12 |
| Share-based pay | Rp0 | No share-based pay is reported | Annual report 2025-12 |
| EBITDA after share-based pay | Rp11.27tn | Adjusted EBITDA less share-based pay | Annual report 2025-12 |
| Depreciation and amortisation | Rp3.81tn | Depreciation and amortisation of adjusted EBITDA | Annual report 2025-12 |
| Revenue | Rp36.73tn | Revenue of the base period | Annual report 2025-12 |
| Borrowings | Rp46.93tn | Total debt less lease liabilities | Annual report 2025-12 |
| Lease liabilities | Rp806bn | Lease liabilities | Annual report 2025-12 |
| Cash and short-term investments | Rp15.57tn | Cash and short-term investments | Annual report 2025-12 |
| Non-controlling interests | Rp1.47tn | Non-controlling interests | Annual report 2025-12 |
| Receivables | Rp1.93tn | Receivables | Annual report 2025-12 |
| Payables | Rp932bn | Payables | Annual report 2025-12 |
| Inventories | Rp310bn | Inventories | Annual report 2025-12 |
| Payments of lease liabilities | Rp585bn | Payments of lease liabilities | Annual report 2025-12 |
| Interest on lease liabilities | Rp50.1bn est. | Interest on lease liabilities at the average rate of finance costs on total debt | Annual report 2025-12 |
| Capital expenditure | Rp2.62tn | Capital expenditure of the latest fiscal year | Annual report 2025-12 |
Checks of the Model
- Sources equal uses
- The equity price is above nil
- The sponsor's equity is above nil
- Each balance of debt stays between nil and its amount at closing
- Cash is the cash of the year before and the cash flow of the year
- Cash stays at the minimum unless a shortfall is stated
- The 6 parts of the bridge add up to the proceeds less the sponsor's equity
- The cash flows at the internal rate of return have a present value of nil
Deal Lab computes arithmetic on published figures and on the assumptions of the user. It values no company, recommends no transaction and forecasts no result.