Deal Lab · Buyout model 1.0
CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. Buyout Model
A buyout of CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. on its published figures for the last 4 quarters to Q2 FY2027, in US dollars: revenue flat, the margin and the shares of revenue of that period, entry and exit at 10.0x EBITDA, exit after 5 years.
Returns
Internal rate of return
−38.6%
Multiple of money
0.09x
Sponsor's equity
$1.3bn
Enterprise value
$2.3bn
Proceeds at exit
$114m
Sources and Uses
| Uses | Amount |
|---|---|
| Equity price | $6.5bn |
| Borrowings refinanced | $746m |
| Transaction costs | $46.7m |
| Financing fees | $21.9m |
| Minimum cash | $108m |
| Uses | $7.4bn |
| Sources | Amount |
|---|---|
| Senior loan | $819m |
| Subordinated notes | $273m |
| Cash of the company | $5.0bn |
| Sponsor's equity | $1.3bn |
| Sources | $7.4bn |
Projection
| Closing | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $5.4bn | $5.4bn | $5.4bn | $5.4bn | $5.4bn | $5.4bn |
| EBITDA of the case | $233m | $233m | $233m | $233m | $233m | $233m |
| Cash cost of leases | $20.1m | $20.1m | $20.1m | $20.1m | $20.1m | $20.1m |
| Depreciation and amortisation | $333m | $333m | $333m | $333m | $333m | |
| Capital expenditure | $339m | $339m | $339m | $339m | $339m | |
| Increase in working capital | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | |
| Interest | $87.4m | $102m | $102m | $102m | $101m | |
| Tax | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | |
| Cash available for debt service | −$126m | −$126m | −$126m | −$126m | −$126m |
Debt Schedule
| Closing | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Senior loan | $819m | $811m | $803m | $795m | $787m | $778m |
| Subordinated notes | $273m | $273m | $273m | $273m | $273m | $273m |
| Revolving facility | $0 | $221m | $233m | $233m | $233m | $233m |
| Cash | $108m | $108m | −$116m | −$352m | −$587m | −$822m |
| Debt to EBITDA | 5.00x | 5.91x | 5.93x | 5.89x | 5.86x | 5.82x |
| EBITDA to interest | 2.67x | 2.29x | 2.28x | 2.30x | 2.31x |
Covenants and the Credit View
| Closing | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Limit of debt to EBITDA | 6.50x | |||||
| Lease-adjusted debt to EBITDA | 5.00x | 5.91x | 5.93x | 5.89x | 5.86x | 5.82x |
| Band of debt to EBITDA | Highly leveraged | Highly leveraged | Highly leveraged | Highly leveraged | Highly leveraged | Highly leveraged |
Return Bridge
| Amount | |
|---|---|
| Sponsor's equity | $1.3bn |
| EBITDA growth | $0 |
| Change of multiple | $0 |
| Net debt repaid | −$1.1bn |
| Non-controlling interests | $0 |
| Costs at closing | −$68.5m |
| Management and limited liability | $0 |
| Proceeds at exit | $114m |
Sensitivity Tables
| Entry by exit | 8.00x | 9.00x | 10.0x | 11.0x | 12.0x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.00x | −100% | −100% | −27.2% | −13.9% | −5.9% |
| 9.00x | −100% | −100% | −36.0% | −20.1% | −11.5% |
| 10.0x | −100% | −100% | −38.6% | −23.3% | −15.0% |
| 11.0x | −100% | −100% | −40.6% | −25.8% | −17.8% |
| 12.0x | −100% | −100% | −42.3% | −27.9% | −20.1% |
| Debt by growth | −4.0% | −2.0% | 0.0% | 2.0% | 4.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.00x | −29.7% | −25.7% | −22.1% | −18.7% | −15.6% |
| 4.50x | −41.3% | −33.5% | −27.8% | −23.2% | −19.0% |
| 5.00x | −100% | −56.3% | −38.6% | −30.1% | −24.0% |
| 5.50x | −100% | −100% | −100% | −46.0% | −32.4% |
| 6.00x | −100% | −100% | −100% | −100% | −65.1% |
Solvers
Highest entry multiple for a return of 20.0%
n/a
No entry multiple reaches the target
Revenue growth a year for a return of 20.0%
31.6%
The target return
Debt capacity at closing, times EBITDA
n/a
The covenants fail without new debt
Assumptions and Their Origins
| Group | Assumption | Value | Origin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Transaction | Entry multiple | 10.0x | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Transaction | Years to exit | 5 years | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Transaction | Transaction costs | 2.0% | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Transaction | Financing fees | 2.0% | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Transaction | Minimum cash, of revenue | 2.0% | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Financing | Debt at closing, times EBITDA | 5.00x | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Financing | Debt at most, of the enterprise value | 60.0% | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Financing | Senior loan, of the new debt | 75.0% | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Financing | Senior loan repaid each year | 1.0% | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Financing | Cash sweep | 100% | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Financing | Revolving facility, times EBITDA | 1.00x | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Financing | Base rate | 3.9% | Policy rate of the United States, BIS central bank policy rates, 20 October 2026 |
| Financing | Senior loan spread | 3.5% | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Financing | Subordinated notes spread | 6.0% | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Financing | Revolving facility spread | 3.0% | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Financing | Covenant headroom on debt to EBITDA | 30.0% | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Financing | Minimum EBITDA to interest | 2.00x | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Operations | Revenue growth a year | 0.0% | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Operations | EBITDA margin | 4.3% | EBITDA over revenue, last 4 quarters to FY2027 Q2 |
| Operations | Cash cost of leases, of revenue | 0.4% | Cash cost of leases over revenue, last 4 quarters to FY2027 Q2 |
| Operations | Depreciation and amortisation, of revenue | 6.2% | Depreciation and amortisation over revenue, last 4 quarters to FY2027 Q2 |
| Operations | Capital expenditure, of revenue | 6.3% | Median capital expenditure over revenue, fiscal 2024 to 2026 |
| Operations | Working capital, of revenue | 17.1% | Working capital over revenue, end of the last 4 quarters to FY2027 Q2 |
| Operations | Leases as debt | Yes | Leases as debt, the basis of the credit metrics |
| Operations | Share-based pay added back | No | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Taxes | Tax rate | 25.5% | Combined statutory rate of corporate income tax of the United States, OECD Corporate Tax Statistics, 2026 |
| Taxes | Interest deducted up to 30% of EBITDA | No | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Exit | Exit multiple | 10.0x | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Exit | Management share of the proceeds | 0.0% | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Exit | Target return | 20.0% | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
Inputs and Their Documents
Published figures of the last 4 quarters to Q2 FY2027, each with the documents it comes from.
| Input | Value | Method | Documents |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EBITDA | $1.5bn est. | Adjusted EBITDA of the company page | 10-Q 2025-07, 10-Q 2025-10, 10-K 2026-01, 10-Q 2026-04, 10-Q 2026-07 |
| Share-based pay | $1.2bn | Share-based pay that adjusted EBITDA adds back | 10-Q 2025-07, 10-Q 2025-10, 10-K 2026-01, 10-Q 2026-04, 10-Q 2026-07 |
| EBITDA after share-based pay | $233m est. | Adjusted EBITDA less share-based pay | 10-Q 2025-07, 10-Q 2025-10, 10-K 2026-01, 10-Q 2026-04, 10-Q 2026-07 |
| Depreciation and amortisation | $333m | Depreciation and amortisation of adjusted EBITDA | 10-Q 2025-07, 10-Q 2025-10, 10-K 2026-01, 10-Q 2026-04, 10-Q 2026-07 |
| Revenue | $5.4bn | Revenue of the base period | 10-Q 2025-10, 10-K 2026-01, 10-Q 2026-04, 10-Q 2026-07 |
| Operating lease cost | $20.1m est. | Operating lease cost | 10-K 2026-01 |
| Borrowings | $746m | Total debt less lease liabilities | 10-Q 2026-07 |
| Lease liabilities | $74.0m | Lease liabilities | 10-Q 2026-07 |
| Cash and short-term investments | $5.0bn | Cash and short-term investments | 10-Q 2026-07 |
| Non-controlling interests | $37.8m | Non-controlling interests | 10-Q 2026-07 |
| Receivables | $1.0bn | Receivables | 10-Q 2026-07 |
| Payables | $114m | Payables | 10-Q 2026-07 |
| Inventories | $0 | The balance sheet reports none | n/a |
| Capital expenditure | $302m | Capital expenditure of the latest fiscal year | 10-K 2026-01 |
Checks of the Model
- Sources equal uses
- The equity price is above nil
- The sponsor's equity is above nil
- Each balance of debt stays between nil and its amount at closing
- Cash is the cash of the year before and the cash flow of the year
- Cash stays at the minimum unless a shortfall is stated
- The 6 parts of the bridge add up to the proceeds less the sponsor's equity
- The cash flows at the internal rate of return have a present value of nil
Deal Lab computes arithmetic on published figures and on the assumptions of the user. It values no company, recommends no transaction and forecasts no result.