Deal Lab · Buyout model 1.0
PT ASDP Indonesia Ferry (Persero) Buyout Model
A buyout of PT ASDP Indonesia Ferry (Persero) on its published figures for fiscal 2024, in rupiah: revenue flat, the margin and the shares of revenue of that period, entry and exit at 10.0x EBITDA, exit after 5 years.
Returns
Internal rate of return
−8.2%
Multiple of money
0.65x
Sponsor's equity
Rp5.69tn
Enterprise value
Rp10.89tn
Proceeds at exit
Rp3.71tn
Sources and Uses
| Uses | Amount |
|---|---|
| Equity price | Rp11.12tn |
| Borrowings refinanced | Rp1.40tn |
| Transaction costs | Rp218bn |
| Financing fees | Rp108bn |
| Minimum cash | Rp100bn |
| Uses | Rp12.95tn |
| Sources | Amount |
|---|---|
| Senior loan | Rp4.07tn |
| Subordinated notes | Rp1.36tn |
| Cash of the company | Rp1.84tn |
| Sponsor's equity | Rp5.69tn |
| Sources | Rp12.95tn |
Projection
| Closing | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | Rp5.02tn | Rp5.02tn | Rp5.02tn | Rp5.02tn | Rp5.02tn | Rp5.02tn |
| EBITDA of the case | Rp1.09tn | Rp1.09tn | Rp1.09tn | Rp1.09tn | Rp1.09tn | Rp1.09tn |
| Cash cost of leases | Rp43.3bn | Rp43.3bn | Rp43.3bn | Rp43.3bn | Rp43.3bn | Rp43.3bn |
| Depreciation and amortisation | Rp579bn | Rp579bn | Rp579bn | Rp579bn | Rp579bn | |
| Capital expenditure | Rp794bn | Rp794bn | Rp794bn | Rp794bn | Rp794bn | |
| Increase in working capital | Rp0 | Rp0 | Rp0 | Rp0 | Rp0 | |
| Interest | Rp535bn | Rp560bn | Rp587bn | Rp616bn | Rp616bn | |
| Tax | Rp0 | Rp0 | Rp0 | Rp0 | Rp0 | |
| Cash available for debt service | Rp252bn | Rp252bn | Rp252bn | Rp252bn | Rp252bn |
Debt Schedule
| Closing | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Senior loan | Rp4.07tn | Rp4.03tn | Rp3.99tn | Rp3.94tn | Rp3.90tn | Rp3.86tn |
| Subordinated notes | Rp1.36tn | Rp1.36tn | Rp1.36tn | Rp1.36tn | Rp1.36tn | Rp1.36tn |
| Revolving facility | Rp0 | Rp324bn | Rp673bn | Rp1.05tn | Rp1.09tn | Rp1.09tn |
| Cash | Rp100bn | Rp100bn | Rp100bn | Rp100bn | −Rp263bn | −Rp667bn |
| Debt to EBITDA | 5.00x | 5.26x | 5.54x | 5.85x | 5.85x | 5.81x |
| EBITDA to interest | 2.03x | 1.94x | 1.86x | 1.77x | 1.77x |
Covenants and the Credit View
| Closing | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Limit of debt to EBITDA | 6.50x | |||||
| Lease-adjusted debt to EBITDA | 5.00x | 5.26x | 5.54x | 5.85x | 5.85x | 5.81x |
| Band of debt to EBITDA | Highly leveraged | Highly leveraged | Highly leveraged | Highly leveraged | Highly leveraged | Highly leveraged |
Return Bridge
| Amount | |
|---|---|
| Sponsor's equity | Rp5.69tn |
| EBITDA growth | Rp0 |
| Change of multiple | Rp0 |
| Net debt repaid | −Rp1.65tn |
| Non-controlling interests | Rp0 |
| Costs at closing | −Rp326bn |
| Management and limited liability | Rp0 |
| Proceeds at exit | Rp3.71tn |
Sensitivity Tables
| Entry by exit | 8.00x | 9.00x | 10.0x | 11.0x | 12.0x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.00x | −12.7% | −4.3% | 1.9% | 6.9% | 11.1% |
| 9.00x | −19.7% | −10.6% | −4.1% | 0.9% | 5.2% |
| 10.0x | −23.1% | −14.4% | −8.2% | −3.3% | 0.7% |
| 11.0x | −25.8% | −17.4% | −11.4% | −6.7% | −2.8% |
| 12.0x | −28.0% | −19.8% | −14.1% | −9.5% | −5.7% |
| Debt by growth | −4.0% | −2.0% | 0.0% | 2.0% | 4.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.00x | −14.0% | −9.0% | −4.6% | −0.7% | 3.0% |
| 4.50x | −17.6% | −11.3% | −6.1% | −1.5% | 2.5% |
| 5.00x | −23.1% | −14.7% | −8.2% | −2.8% | 1.9% |
| 5.50x | −32.9% | −19.5% | −11.0% | −4.5% | 1.0% |
| 6.00x | −100% | −27.6% | −15.0% | −6.6% | −0.1% |
Solvers
Highest entry multiple for a return of 20.0%
n/a
No entry multiple reaches the target
Revenue growth a year for a return of 20.0%
13.8%
The target return
Debt capacity at closing, times EBITDA
4.32x
The interest cover or the limit of debt to EBITDA
Assumptions and Their Origins
| Group | Assumption | Value | Origin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Transaction | Entry multiple | 10.0x | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Transaction | Years to exit | 5 years | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Transaction | Transaction costs | 2.0% | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Transaction | Financing fees | 2.0% | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Transaction | Minimum cash, of revenue | 2.0% | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Financing | Debt at closing, times EBITDA | 5.00x | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Financing | Debt at most, of the enterprise value | 60.0% | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Financing | Senior loan, of the new debt | 75.0% | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Financing | Senior loan repaid each year | 1.0% | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Financing | Cash sweep | 100% | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Financing | Revolving facility, times EBITDA | 1.00x | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Financing | Base rate | 5.8% | Policy rate of Indonesia, BIS central bank policy rates, 19 October 2026 |
| Financing | Senior loan spread | 3.5% | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Financing | Subordinated notes spread | 6.0% | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Financing | Revolving facility spread | 3.0% | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Financing | Covenant headroom on debt to EBITDA | 30.0% | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Financing | Minimum EBITDA to interest | 2.00x | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Operations | Revenue growth a year | 0.0% | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Operations | EBITDA margin | 21.7% | EBITDA over revenue, fiscal 2024 |
| Operations | Cash cost of leases, of revenue | 0.9% | Cash cost of leases over revenue, fiscal 2024 |
| Operations | Depreciation and amortisation, of revenue | 11.5% | Depreciation and amortisation over revenue, fiscal 2024 |
| Operations | Capital expenditure, of revenue | 15.8% | Median capital expenditure over revenue, fiscal 2022 to 2024 |
| Operations | Working capital, of revenue | −5.8% | Working capital over revenue, end of the fiscal 2024 |
| Operations | Leases as debt | Yes | Leases as debt, the basis of the credit metrics |
| Operations | Share-based pay added back | No | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Taxes | Tax rate | 22.0% | Combined statutory rate of corporate income tax of Indonesia, OECD Corporate Tax Statistics, 2026 |
| Taxes | Interest deducted up to 30% of EBITDA | No | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Exit | Exit multiple | 10.0x | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Exit | Management share of the proceeds | 0.0% | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Exit | Target return | 20.0% | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
Inputs and Their Documents
Published figures of fiscal 2024, each with the documents it comes from.
| Input | Value | Method | Documents |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EBITDA | Rp1.09tn | Adjusted EBITDA of the company page | Annual report 2024-12 |
| Share-based pay | Rp0 | No share-based pay is reported | Annual report 2024-12 |
| EBITDA after share-based pay | Rp1.09tn | Adjusted EBITDA less share-based pay | Annual report 2024-12 |
| Depreciation and amortisation | Rp579bn | Depreciation and amortisation of adjusted EBITDA | Annual report 2024-12 |
| Revenue | Rp5.02tn | Revenue of the base period | Annual report 2024-12 |
| Borrowings | Rp1.40tn | Total debt less lease liabilities | Annual report 2024-12 |
| Lease liabilities | Rp23.0bn | Lease liabilities | Annual report 2024-12 |
| Cash and short-term investments | Rp1.84tn | Cash and short-term investments | Annual report 2024-12 |
| Non-controlling interests | Rp183bn | Non-controlling interests | Annual report 2024-12 |
| Receivables | Rp31.8bn | Receivables | Annual report 2024-12 |
| Payables | Rp450bn | Payables | Annual report 2024-12 |
| Inventories | Rp128bn | Inventories | Annual report 2024-12 |
| Payments of lease liabilities | Rp41.4bn | Payments of lease liabilities | Annual report 2024-12 |
| Interest on lease liabilities | Rp1.9bn est. | Interest on lease liabilities at the average rate of finance costs on total debt | Annual report 2024-12 |
| Capital expenditure | Rp614bn | Capital expenditure of the latest fiscal year | Annual report 2024-12 |
Checks of the Model
- Sources equal uses
- The equity price is above nil
- The sponsor's equity is above nil
- Each balance of debt stays between nil and its amount at closing
- Cash is the cash of the year before and the cash flow of the year
- Cash stays at the minimum unless a shortfall is stated
- The 6 parts of the bridge add up to the proceeds less the sponsor's equity
- The cash flows at the internal rate of return have a present value of nil
Deal Lab computes arithmetic on published figures and on the assumptions of the user. It values no company, recommends no transaction and forecasts no result.